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Equit y
R es ea r ch A mer ic a s
|
U nit ed
S ta tes
H e ad i n g
i n to
Ap r - Q
r e su l ts:
A m id
unpr ecedent ed
unc e r ta int y
s ur r oundin g
t he
nea r - te r m a nd
l ing er ing
i m pact s
of
C O VID - 19 ,
w e l ow er
ou r
estima tes/TP s
a nd
pr ovide
our
l a test view s
on
our
Ent erp r ise - f ocused na m es
i nto
A pr il - Q
r es ult s .
We’ r e c a uti ous on
on - pr em ise s er ver /stor a g e dema nd,
w it h
a ny
nea r - ter m
bump
on
r us hed
W F H/B CP
s pend
l ik ely behind
us
a s
pr es s ur e on
IT
budg ets
s ets
in.
W hil e J uly
l ik ely
ma r k s
t he
t r oug h
vs. s ea s ona li ty
( C S e ~ 9 pts
below
f o r
Pr oduct ) ,
we
ex pect
sof t
dem a nd
t r ends t o
l in g er
a nd thi nk S tr eet
es ti m a tes
em bed
a n
over ly
opti m istic
sna p
ba ck
i n
C 2 H.
F or
t hose will in g
t o look
bey ond
nea r - ter m
softness ,
w e t hink
t he
r ecent
a cc ele r a ti on
i n
publ ic
c loud
a dopti on
is a t r end
t ha t’ s
her e t o
sta y
a nd,
whi le
nega ti ve
f o r
on - pr em
spen ding ,
c r ea tes
long er - te r m oppor tuni ty
f or
Ha r dw a r e vendor s
t ha t
em br a ce
the
s hif t
towa r d
hy br id ;
w e t hink
IB M
a nd
N etA pp
s ta nd
to
benef it
m os t
w it hin
our
s pa ce,
w hi le
HP E
is over l y
dependent
on
on - pr em .
A
fr amew o r k
fo r
CY2 0 /C Y21 :
Wi th
no
ea s y
hi s tor ic a l
g uide
f o r
t he
c ur r ent
ba ck dr op,
w e pr ovide
a f r a m ew or k
t o
under s ta nd
k ey
push
point s ,
s ens it ivit ies,
etc . ,
r a ther
than
f ocus
on just
a bs olut e f or eca s ts.
O ur
Pr od uc t
es ti m a tes
f a ct or
i n
( 1 )
r evenu e i s
t he
sha r pes t
s ub - s ea s ona l
in
J uly
( ~ 9 pts
below
tr a il ing
3 - y r ) ,
s ta biliz es
a t
ty pic a l
s ea s ona li ty
i n
O ct /J an, then s na ps
ba c k
i n
1 HCY 21 ;
a nd
( 2 )
TT M
Pr oduct
r evenue
r etur ns
t o
m odes tl y
bel ow
C Y 19 levels
( due
t o
f a s ter
cl oud
a dopti on)
within
9 - 10
qtr s
( by
C Y 22 ) ,
i n - li ne
with
t he
avg .
f or pr ior
downtu r ns .
While
ou r
new
e s ts
f or
C 2 H
a nd
bey ond
sta nd
mea ning f ull y
be low
cur r ent consens us ,
a f ull - blown
“20 08 / 2009
r e cess ion”
scena r io
( 4
q tr s
s ha r ply
sub - s ea s ona l
a nd 13
qt r s
ba ck
to
pea k )
would
pr es ent
s ig nif i ca nt
dow ns ide
even
vs .
C S e.
F o r
hi g h - m a r g in S ervic es ,
w e f o cus
on
a tt ach to
t he
i ns ta ll ed
ba s e ( us ing
t r a il ing
5 - y r
Pr odu ct
a s
a pr ox y ) , a nd
ex pect
a mor e muted
i m pact
with
a potenti a l
boos t
a s
c us tom er s
“sw ea t”
a ss et s .
Fi x e d
v s.
v ar i ab l e
co sts
a key
sw i n g
fac to r ;
u n d e rl yi n g
m ar g i n s
u n d e r
p r e ssu r e
as compo n e n t
co sts
rise .
We’ r e k eenly
f ocused on
ne g a ti ve
oper a t ing
l ever a g e a c r os s
our cover a g e a nd
br ea k
out
f ix ed
vs.
va r iable
costs
a s :
( 1 )
Pr oduct
C O GS
a r e hi g h ly
va r ia ble,
( 2 )
S er vi ces
C O GS
a r e sim il a r ly
f lex ibl e ( thoug h
sli g htl y
l es s
t ha n
Pr oduct ) ,
a nd
( 3 )
O pEx
i s la r g ely
f ix ed
nea r - ter m ,
w it h
va r ia bil it y
i nc r ea s ing
over
ti m e a s
budg ets
a r e r es et.
W e a lso s ee r isk s
t o
ma r g ins
f r om
unde r ly ing
DR A M / N A N D
cost i nc r ea s es ,
w it h
ve ndor s
( on
s er ver s
i n
pa r ti cul a r )
c ha ll eng ed
t o
push
thr ou g h
t he
i ncr ea s e vs.
a t oug h
dema nd
ba ck dr op.
Co mp any
V i e w s:
N e tAp p
(T P
to
$53 ) :
A
sof te r
dema nd
envir onment
w eig hs
on
the
NT tr a jec tor y
a nd
S tr eet
ests
under a ppr eci a te
the
impa ct
of
ne g a ti ve
oper a ti n g
l ever a g e on EPS .
We
r em a in
O /P,
however ,
a s
N etA pp’s Da ta
F a br ic
str a teg y
i s
a k ey
di ff e r enti a tor
in a hy br id - f i r s t
w or ld.
D e ll
(T P
to
$41 ) :
WF H
is a t a il w ind
to
PCs
t ha t
helps
cushion
a g a inst s ha r p
pr es s ur e i n
IS G;
how eve r ,
w e’r e c oncer ned
it ’s
a pul l - f o r w a r d
t ha t
compounds Enter pr ise w ea k nes s
i n
2 H.
A m i d
a di ff ic ul t
dem a nd
ba ck dr op,
Dell ’s
outsized
debt
ba la nce ( > 5 x
C Y 20 E
E B IT D A )
l eaves l ittl e r oom
f or
er r or .
P u r e
S to r ag e
($1 4
TP) :
While
w e see potent ia l
f or
a shor t - ter m
VD I
bum p, w e ex pect
t he
sof t
dem a nd
ba ck dr op
t o
m a k e sh a r e g a ins
ha r der
t o
c om e by
a nd
believe
t he
c om pa ny ’s
inher ent
t r a de - of f
bet w een
g r ow th
a nd m a r g in
lea ves no
pr of it a bil it y
t o
f a ll
ba ck
on.
H P E
(T P
to
$9 ) :
Wi t h
> 50 %
of
mix
t ied
to s er ver s ,
w e see
r isk
t o
bot h
r eve nue
a nd
ma r g ins
a he ad. Wi thout
a str ong er
hyb r id
na rr a ti ve
f or
i nves tor s
t o
l a tc h
ont o
( w e pr ef e r
HW
vendo r s
t ha t
move
up
t he
sta ck
t o
“ow n” the
hy br id
pla tf or m
ove r
HPE’s
S w it zer land - es que
a ppr oa ch) ,
“che a p”
a lone
isn’t
enoug h
of
a ca ta ly s t ,
a nd
we
thi nk the
s toc k
w ill
r em a in
under
pr es s ur e unti l
s ales s u s ta ina bly
impr ove.
Rese ar c h
An aly sts
Ma tt he w
Ca b r a l
415
249
7929
m a tt hew .c a bra l @ c redi t - s uis s e. c om
Da n
K n a u ff ,
CF A
415
249
7925
da niel . k nauff @ c redit - s uis s e. c om
Mi c h a e l
A ll e n
415
249
7926
m ic ha el. a lle n@ c redit - s uis s e. c om
D IS CLOSU RE
AP P E ND IX
AT
TH E
B ACK
O F
TH IS
REP O RT
CONTA IN S
IMP O RT ANT
D IS CLOSU RE S ,
ANALYST CE RT IFICATIONS, LE G AL
E NTITY
D IS CLOSU RE
AND
TH E
S TA TU S
O F
NON - U S
ANALYSTS.
U S
Discl os ur e :
C r edit
S uiss e does a nd
s eek s
to
do
business w it h
compa nies
cover ed
in
it s
r e s ea r ch
r epor ts.
A s
a
r es ult ,
inve s tor s
s hould
be
a w a r e
tha t
the
F ir m
m a y
ha ve
a
conf li ct
of
i nte r es t
tha t
coul d
IT
Har dware
C auti ous
on
En t er prise
de ma nd as
C OVID
adds to
an
al re ady
s oft
bac kdrop;
hy brid
c loud
a
key opp ortunit y
lo nger - term
IT
Ha r dw a r e |
C om pa ny
U pda te
T able
of
Co nte nts
E x e c u ti v e
S u mm ar y
3
D e ta i l i n g
Ou r
COVID - 19
Fr amew o r k
5
Pr oduct :
J uly
t r oug h
vs.
sea s onal,
but
hea dw inds
li ng er
........................................................ 5
Se r vic es :
Ins ta ll ed - ba s e mutes
nea r - ter m
i m pact
................................................................... 7
S tr eet
es ti m a te
ha ve
c om e down,
but
li k ely
not
y et
r e f lec ti n g
t he
f ull
i m pact
of
l in g er in g hea dw inds
............................................................................................................................... 7
B r ea k ing
out
f i x ed
vs.
va r iable
co s ts
....................................................................................... 8
M ar g i n s
i n
fo c u s
as
co sts
rise
v s.
so ft
d e mand
10
Val u at i o n
12
Ne tAp p
14
D e ll
Te c h n o l o g i e s
17
P u r e
S to r ag e
20
H e w l e tt
P ac ka r d
E n t e r p r i se
23
Ap p e n d i x :
W h at
w e ’v e
l e ar n e d
fro m C1 Q
r e su l ts
26
Exe cu tive
Summ ary
A m id
unpr ecedent ed
un cer ta int y
s ur r ounding
the
nea r - ter m
a nd
l in g er in g
i m pact s
of
C O VID - 19 , w e lower
our
estima tes /TPs
a nd
pr ovide
our
l a test
views
on
our
E nter pr ise - f ocused na m es
i nto A pr il - Q
r es ult s .
We’ r e c a uti ous on
on - pr em
ser ver /sto r a g e dema nd,
w it h
a ny
nea r - ter m
bump on
r us hed
W F H/B CP
s pend
l ik ely
behind
us
a s
pr es s ur e on
IT
bu dg ets
s ets
in.
W hil e J uly
l ik ely m a r k s
t he
t r oug h
vs.
sea s ona li ty
( C S e ~ 9 pts
below
f or
P r oduct ) ,
w e ex pect
sof t
dem a nd
t r ends to
li ng er
a nd
t hink
S tr eet
estima tes
em bed
a n
over ly
opti m istic
sn a p
ba ck
i n
C 2 H.
F or
t hose w illi ng
t o
l ook
bey ond
nea r - ter m
s of tness ,
w e t hink
t he
r ecent
a cc eler a ti on
i n
publ ic
cl oud a dopti on
i s
a t r end
t ha t’ s
her e t o
s ta y
a nd,
w hil e nega ti ve
f or
on - p r em
spending ,
cr ea tes
long e r - ter m
oppor tuni t y
f o r
Ha r d w a r e ve ndor s
t ha t
em br a ce
the
s hif t
tow a r d
hy br id;
we
th ink
IB M
a nd N etA pp
sta nd
t o
benef it
mos t
w it hin
our
c over a g e ,
w hil e we
r em a i n
U nderper f o r m
on
HP E.
O u tli n i n g
o u r
fra me w o r k
fo r
a sse ssi n g
th e
COVID
i mpac t
W it h
no
ea s y
hi s tor ic a l
g uide
f o r
t he
c ur r e nt
ba ck dr op ,
w e believe
i t’ s
mor e valuable
to
look
a t the
w orld
thr ou g h
t he
l ens
o f
a n
under ly in g
f r a m ew or k
t o
under s ta nd
k ey
push
point s , s ens it ivit ies,
et c . ,
r a the r
t ha n
f oc us
on
just
a bs olut e f or eca s ts.
Indeed,
a ny
estima te
s ubm it ted in
thi s
envir onment
is done
so
hum bly
a nd
with
a f a r
wider
r a ng e o f
potenti a l
outc om es
a r ound the
ba s e c a s e t ha n
i n
stea dier
t imes .
T he
under pinni ng s
of
ou r
f r a m ew or k
a r e a s
f oll ow s :
P r o d u c t:
J u l y
tr o u g h
v s.
seaso n al,
b u t
he ad w i n d s
l i n g e r :
A cr os s
our
Ent er pr ise HW cover a g e,
w e’ve
ex pli ci tl y
sepa r a t ed
Pr oduct
vs.
S e r vic es
( r epor te d
by
N etA pp/Pur e, es ti m a ted
f or
HPE/Del l )
a nd
f or e ca s ted
w it h
t w o
pr ima r y
f a ct o r s
i n
mind:
( 1 )
r evenue
is the s ha r pes t
s ub - s ea s on a l
in
J uly
( ~ 9 pts
below
tr a il ing
3 - y r ) ,
s ta biliz e s
a t
ty pic a l
s ea s ona li ty
i n O ct /J an, then
s na ps
b a ck
i n...
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