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矿工价格评论【精选推荐】

 

 G l o b al R e sear c h

 27

 Mar ch

 2020

 UB S

 G lob a l

 I/ O :

 M i n e rs"

 Pri c e

 Re v i e w

 Air

 P ocke t

  UB S

 V i e w: M a i n ta i n

 ma rke t

 we i g h t

 thro u g h

 g o l d

 & d i v ers i fi e d

 mi n ers

 An un ex p ec ted

 s tart to

 2020 w i th

 COV I D -19 dom i na t i ng di s c u ss i o ns

 a nd e qui t y

 m a rk e t p erforman c e.

 G i v en

 th e

 ri s k o ff

 b eh av i our an d fl i gh t

 to

 s afe

 h av en

 a sse t s

 suc h a s

 go ld , th e

 mi n i ng s ec to r p red om i n an t l y

 th rough go l d eq u i ti es

 h as

 ou tp erformed . M SCI

 Wo rl d M ini ng i s

 down 22%

 Y T D , f a r i ng s li ght l y

 be tt e r t ha n M S C I

 Wor l d w hi c h i s

 down 24% . I ron o re

 p ri ce

 h as

 fi rmed

 as

 C h i n a

 retu rn s

 to

 w ork an d s upp l y

 d i s ap po i nt s , w hil e

 ba s e metal s

  h ave

  d ec li n ed

  on

 d e man d

 c on c ern s .

 O il

  h as

  d ec li n ed

  th e

  mo s t

  as

  red u c ed d eman d h a s

 b e en

 ampli fi e d b y

 a

 b reakd o w n i n O PEC

 d i s c i p li n e,

 an d th i s

 h a s

 d eflated cos t

  c ur ve s .

 I n

 Q 2

 20

 mo bili t y

  r e s t r i c t i ons

  a nd

 t he

  i m pa c t

  on

 s u ppl y - de m a nd

 s ee s c omm odi t i e s

 v ol a t il e , w hil e

 C hi na ’ s

 r ec ov e r y

 s uppor t s

 i ron or e , but w e i ghs

 on c oa l

 a nd al u mi n a.

 M arke t

 W ei gh t

 w i th

 a

 p referen ce

 fo r go l d an d h i gh qu al ity

 d i v ers i fi e d mi n ers . K ey Th em es :

 C O V I D - 19 ,

 O P E C

 b r e a k d o w n

 and

 C h i na

 S t i mu l us

 Q2

  20

 i s

  se e n

 a s

  a

  c h a ll e ng i ng

 pe r i od

 t o

 ca ll

  w ha t

  m ay

  or

 m ay

  not

 happe n,

 w i t h mob ility

 res tri c ti on s

 an d Ch i n a’ s

 retu rn to

 w ork s een

 as

 key

 d ri v ers . M ob ility

 res tri c ti on s are

 li kel y

 to

 do mi n ate

 c ommod ity

 p erforman ce

 th e

 mo s t,

 bu t

 i t

 w ill

 d epen d on w h eth er s up pl y

 or

  de m a nd

  i s

 mo s t

 i mp ac ted .

  W e

 rec o mmen d

  i n v es to rs

 und ers tan d

  th e g eo g ra ph i c

  c en tres

  o f

  s upp l y

  &

 d eman d

 w h i c h

 are

  s u mmari s ed

  on

 p ag e

  33.

 Certai n c oun tri es

 dom i n ate

 w i th

 I ndon es i a

 40 %

 o f

 th ermal

 c o al

 s upp l y , So u th

 Afri ca

 73 %

 an d 38%

 of

 pl a t i num/m a ngane s e

 s upp l y , w hil e

 C h i na

 i s

 7 3%

 of

 s ea bor ne

 i ron or e

 de m a nd. O u r

 t o p

 p ick s:

 A u ,

 P G MS

 and

 i r o n

 o r e

 w i t h

 ba se

 m e t a l s

 l e a st a tt r a ct i v e

 W e

  h ave

  l o w ered

  mo s t

  c ommod ity

  p ri c es

  to d ay

  to

  refl ec t

  an

  ex p ec ted

  drop

 i n

 Q 2 d eman d.

 At

  th i s

  s tag e

  w e

  ex p ec t

  on l y

  a

  on e

  qu arter

  i mp ac t

  fro m

 COV I D -19

 a nd

 a rec o v ery

 th rough H2

 20 f u el l e d b y

 fi s c al

 an d mon etary

 s ti mu l u s . O ur 2020 av erag es

 fo r b as e

 metal s

 d ec li n e

 b y

 10 +%

 w h il e

 bu l k p ri c i ng s ees

 on l y

 mi nor ad j u s tmen t s . P r e ci o us

 & bu l k s

 p r e f e rr e d

 t o

 ba se

 m e t a l s

 O ur p referred

 go l d n ames

 are

 Po l y metal , G o l d F i el d s , B arri c k a nd Sarac en , al l

 B u y

 rated . BHP

  i s

 p referre d o v er

  R i o Ti n t o as

 o il

 at

  c u rren t

  l ev el s

 s ees

  mu c h o f

  th e

  s upp l y

  c u rv e g enerati ng n e g ati ve

  fee

  c as h fl o w , w h i c h s hou l d

 d ri ve

  c l o s ur es

 an d a

  p ri ce

  res pon s e. F M G

  c on ti nu es

  to

  b en efi t

  fro m

 s tro ng

 ma r gi ns

  w hi c h

 s ee

  i t

  of f e r

 a

  doubl e

  digi t

  F C F y i el d, w h il e

 b as e

 metal

 s to cks

 are

 ex p ec ted

 to

 und erp erf orm i n Q 2 20.

  F i g u r e

 1 :

 U B S

 co mm o d i t y

 p r ice

 f o r eca st s

 –

 summa r y

 o f

 ch an g e s

  C omm od i t y

 2020E

 2021E

 2022E

 2023E

 2024E

 L T

 re al

 C opper

 ( U S¢ / l b)

 220(280) 300(n c )

 320(n c )

 330(n c )

 330(329) 295(n c )

 A l u m .

 (US ¢ /l b )

 73(82) 85(91) 90(98) 95(100) 100(100) 90(n c )

 N i c kel

 ( U S$ / l b)

 5.00(6.75) 7.00(8.00) 8.00(n c )

 7.25(7.50) 7.00(6.68) 6.00(n c )

 Z inc

 ( US ¢ / l b)

 88(100) 95(n c )

 100(n c )

 105(n c )

 108(109) 98(n c )

 G ol d

 (US $ /o z )

 1650(1600) 1650(n c )

 1650(n c )

 1600(n c )

 1500(1448) 1300(n c )

 B r ent

 O il

 ( U S$ / bbl )

 41(60) 48(67) 55(70) 58(70) 60(70) 60(60) IO

 (fi n e s ;

 US $ /t

 cfr )

 86(88) 75(n c )

 65(n c )

 62(n c )

 61(n c )

 55(n c )

 H CC

 ( US $ /t

 fob )

 145(143) 145(n c )

 145(n c )

 150(n c )

 150(n c )

 135(n c )

 Ther m a l

 ( US $ / t

 f o b)

 65(68) 70(n c )

 75(n c )

 75(n c )

 78(78) 70(n c )

 A UD

 (US ¢ )

 62(68) 70(69) 71(72) 73(74) 74(75) 75(n c ))

 S our ce :

 U B S

 R e s ea r c h; n c =no c h a ng e ; i ron or e

 pr i ce s

 62 %

 F e

 e q v

 G l yn

 Law c o ck

 A na l ys t gl yn.l a w cock @ ub s .com

 + 61-2-9324

 3675

 D im A r iy as in g h e

 A na l ys t dim .a ri ya s inghe @ ubs .com

 + 61-2-9324

 2903

 D an i el

 Mo r g an

 A na l ys t da ni e l.mor ga n@ ubs .com

 + 61-2-9324

 3844

 J o n i

 Teves S trategi s t joni .t eve s@ ubs .co m

 + 65

 6495

 6851

 J am es

 K an

 A na l ys t j a m e s .k a n@ ubs .com

 + 852-2971

 6334

 Myl es

 A ll so p

 A na l ys t m yl e s .a ll s op@ ubs .com

 + 44-20-7568

 1693

 D an i el

 Majo r

 A na l ys t da ni e l.m a jor @ ubs .com

 + 44-20-7568

 3472

 A nd r eas B o kke nh e u ser

 A na l ys t a ndr ea s .bokk e nh euse r @ ubs .com

 +1 -212-713

 9516

 Sh il an

 Mo d i

 A na l ys t s hil a n.modi @ ubs .com

 + 27-11-322

 7302

 C l eve

 R u ecker t

 A na l ys t cl eve .r ueck e r t @ u bs .com

 +1 -212-713

 4913

 Hu go

 Br av e r y

 A na l ys t hugo.br ave r y @ ub s .com

 + 44-20-7568

 7202

 G eo r g i na

 Fr ase r Assoc i a t e

 An a l y st ge orgi na .f r a s e r @ ubs .com

 + 61-2-9324

 2410

  www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch

  Th i s

 rep o rt

 h as

 b een

 p rep are d b y

 UB S

 Sec u ri ti es

 Au s trali a

 L td .

 A N A L YS T

 C E R T I F IC A T I O N

 A N D

 R E Q UI R ED

 DI SC L O SUR ES BEGI N O N

 P AGE

 68 .

  UB S

 do e s

 an d s eeks

 to

 do bu s i n es s

 w i t h c omp an i es

 c o v ered

 i n i ts

 re s earc h r ep o rts . As

 a

 res u l t,

 i n v es t o rs

 s hou l d b e aw are

 th at

 th e

 fi rm may

 h ave

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 c ou l d affec t

 th e

 ob j ec ti v ity

 o f

 t h i s

 rep o rt.

 I n ve s to rs

 s hou l d c on s i d er

 th i s rep o rt

 as

 on l y

 a

 s i ng l e

 fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t

 d ec i s i on. Bas i c

 M at er i a l s

 G l o bal

 Equit ies

 U BS

 Glo b al I/ O ® :

 M in er ’s

 Pr ice

 R ev iew

 U BS

 R es ear c h

 U BS

 R es earc h THESI S

 M AP

 M O ST

 F AV O R ED

 L EAST

 F AV O R E D

  G old,

 P G M s ,

 Ir on

 Or e

 Cop pe r ,

 N ic k e l,

 Z inc

  PI VO TAL

 Q UESTI O NS

 Q:

 W ha t

 c o mm o d i t i e s

 d o

 w e

 p r e f e r

 g i v e n

 cu rr e n t

 ma r k e t

 co nd i t i o n s?

 Prec i ou s

  metal s

  are

  p referred .

 G o l d

 p ri c es

  s hou l d

 c on ti nu e

  h i gh er

  as

  real

  r ates

  fall

  an d

 un c ertai n ty p e r sist s;

  p a lla d i um

 f und a m e n t a ls

  a r e

  lik e ly

  t o

 r e m a in

  t ig h t

  a s

  su pp ly

  d isr up t i on s

  o ff se t

  lo sse s

  in d eman d. F o ll o w i ng p rec i ou s

 metal s , w e

 s ee

 mo re

 s uppo rt

 fo r i ron o re

 as

 a

 res u l t

 o f

 i ts

 ex po s u re

 to Ch i n a ,

 w h i c h

 l oo ks

  to

  b e

  o v er

  th e

  w o rs t

  o f

  i ts

  o w n

 ou tb reak

  &

 l oo ki ng

 to

  s uppo rt

  th e

  ec ono my th rough

 i n fras t ru c tu re.

  I n

 c on tras t,

  b a s e

  me tal s

  w ill

  li kel y

  b e

  h ard e s t

  h i t

  fro m

 th e

  do w n tu rn

 i n ec ono mi c

 d ema nd as

 a

 res u l t

 o f

 Co v i d-19.

 Q:

 W h i ch

 c o un t r y

 r e st r i ct i o ns

 p r e se n t

 t h e

 m o st r i sk t o

 g l o ba l

 co mm o d i t y

 S - D

 ba l an ce s?

 W e

  h ave

  al read y

  s een

  a

  numb er

  o f

  c oun t ri es

  ( i n c l ud i ng

 S.

  Afri c a,

  I nd i a ,

 Arg e n ti n a ,

 Pe ru )

  i mpo s e res tri c ti on s

  on

 mob ility

  i n

 ord er

  to

  c on tai n

 th e

  c oron av i ru s

  p an d emi c

  &

 al l ev i ate

  s tres s

  on

 th ei r h eal th c are

  s y s tems .

 I n

 s o me

  c ases ,

 th es e

  re s tri c ti on s

  h ave

  i mp ac ted

  c ommod ity

  fl o w

  &

 c an

  h ave s i g ni f i ca nt

  i mp ac t s

  on

 c omm odi t y

  s upp l y - de m a nd

 ba l a nc e s .

 C hi na

  pos e s

  t he

  bi gge s t

  r i s k

 t o

 t he d eman d- s i de

 of

 m ul t ipl e

 c omm odi t i e s , b ut

 r i s k s

 ap p ear

 to

 b e

 ab ati ng as

 th e

 c oun try

 l oo ks

 t o b e

 o v er th e

  w o rs t

  o f

  th ei r

 ou t b reak.

  Su pp l y

  ri s ks

  are

  g reates t

  w h ere

  th e

  c en trali s ed

  produ c ti on

 o f

  on e c ommod ity

 b ec o mes

 do mi n an t . K ey

 c oun tri es

 are

 So u th

 Afri ca

 fo r Pl ati num ( 73 %) , Au s trali a

 fo r I ron Ore

 ( 58 %) , Ch i n a

 fo r Al u mi n i um ( 57 %) , I ndon es i a

 fo r Th er mal

 Co al

 ( 40 % )

 an d R u ss i a

 fo r Pal l ad i um ( 40% ) .

 Q:

 H o w

 d o e s

 t h e

 st i mu l us

 r e sp o n se

 o f

 g o v e r nm e n t s

 co mpa r e

 n o w

 v s.

 du r i n g

 t h e

 2008 - 0 9? O ur

 ec ono mi s t s

  es ti mate

  gl o ba l

  f i s ca l

  i m pul s e

  i s

  no w

  a t

  2.58 %

  o f

  gl oba l

  GD P .

 Th i s

  c omp ares

  to 1.66 %

 du ri ng th e

 G F C.

 Ho w ev er,

 no t

 al l

 s ti mu l u s

 i s

 c reated

 eq u al

 w i th

 regard

 to

 c ommod ity

 d eman d an d

 w e

  no te

  Ch i n a" s

  rel u c tan ce

  t o

 s ti mu l a te

  s o me

  s ec to rs

  mo re

  w ei gh ted

  to w ard s

  c ommod ity c on s ump ti on ( i . e.

 th e

 prop erty

 s ec to r) .

 UB S

 V I EW

 N eu t r al

 s t an c e

  m ai n t ai n ed :

 W e

  mai n tai n

 our

 s ec to r

 w ei gh ti ng

 at

  Neu t ral

  bu t

  w i th

  pr eferen ce

  to d iv e r sifie d s

 & go ld

 m i n e r s.

  EV I DENCE

 F l ash

 P MI s

 si g na l

 t h e

 pa i n

 ah e ad :

 F l as h

 M an u fac tu ri ng

 PM I " s

 fo r

 t h e

  U S

  ( 49 ) , EU

  ( 44.8 )

  &

 Jap a n ( 44.7 )

 s i gn a l

 th e

 p ai n ah ead

 i n M arc h & are

 al l

 marked

 d eteri o rati on s

 fro m th e

 s tart o f

 th e

 ye ar.

  W HAT" s

 PR I CED

 I N?

 Go...

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