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HOLT创新与持续改进(完整)

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HOLT创新与持续改进(完整)

 

  HO L T ®

 Inn ovation

 &

 Continu ou s

 Impro veme nt

  T homas

 G .

 Hil l man

 HO L T

 D i r ector

 of

 Res ear ch

 tom.hil l ma n@c r edit - s uiss e.c om

  D I SC L OS UR E

 A PPE NDIX

 AT

 TH E

 B AC K

 O F

 TH I S

 RE P ORT

 C ON TAI NS

 I M P OR TANT

 D I SC L OS UR E S,

 A NA L Y ST

 CE RTI F I C ATI ON S,

 L E G AL

 E NTI TY

 D I SC L OS UR E

 A ND

 T HE

 STATUS

 OF

 NO N - US

 A NA L Y STS.

 US

 D is c lo s u re :

 C re d it

 Su is s e d o e s

 an d

 s ee ks

 to

 d o

 bu s in e ss

 with

 c o mp an ie s

 c o v e re d

 in

 its

 re s e ar c h

 re p orts .

 As

 a re s u lt,

 inv e s to rs sh o u ld

 b e awar e th at th e F irm

 may

 hav e a c o n flict

 o f

 in te re s t

 th at

 c o u ld

 affe c t

 th e o b je c tiv ity

 o f

 th is re p o rt.

 I n v e s to rs sh o u ld

 c o n s id e r

 th is re p o rt

 as

 o n ly

 a s in gle fact o r

 in

 makin g

 t h e ir

 inv e s tme n t

 d e c is io n .

 Mar ch

 9 ,

 2020

 HO L T’ s

 focus

 on

 innovation

 and continu ous

 improveme nt

  HO L T ’ s

 f r ame wor k

 is

 a daptive

 f or

 c hanging

 ac c ounting

 r ules

 and

 mar ket

 c onditions.

 Innova tive

 c ulture

 −

 30 +

 years

 of

 c ontinuous

 improvement

 to

 the

 fr amewor k.

 −

 Listeni ng

 t o

 c lient

 feedbac k

 to

 extend

 r esearc h

 and

 improve

 the

 produc t.

 −

 HO L T

 is

 con tinuously

 impr oving

 or

 adding

 to ol s ,

 expanding

 data

 coverage ,

 building

 out

 factors,

 and

 improving

 data

 qualit y .

 Ri gorous

 oversi ght

 and

 appr oval

 proc ess

 – CF RO I ®

  Fr amewor k

 Committ ee c onsi st s

 of

 a global

 team

 of

 senior

 HO L T

 member s

 that

 appr ove

 s emi - annual

 model

 enhancements .

 This

 present ation

 prov ides

 an

 over view

 of

 HO L T ’ s

 c over age,

 an

 overview

 of

 innovation

 a nd c ontinuous

 improvement

 to

 the

 HO L T

 f ra mewor k

 over

 the

 la st

 eight

 years, and

 a s ummary of

 the

 ar eas

 of

 new

 researc h.

 EM EA

 Ameri cas

 Acco u nt ing

 Qu ali t y :

 ~2 ,3 00

 f ir ms

 C o rp o rat e Pe rf o rman ce :

 ~3 ,6 00

 f ir ms

 C a rb o n

 An a ly t ics:

 ~3 ,2 00

 f ir ms

 HO L T

 coverage

 Global

 database

 covering

 nea rly

 20,000

 compan ies

 in

 65+

 count ries .

 The

 HO L T

 dat abas e c ontains

 ~ 98 %

 of

 gl oba l

 market

 capit alizatio n.

  S ou r c e :

 HO LT

 Le n s™

 as

 o f

 Jan u ary

 2020.

 C o rp o rat e Pe rf o rman ce :

 ~5 ,8 00

 f ir ms

 Accou n t ing

 Quali t y:

 ~3 ,1 00

 f ir ms

 M g mt .

 In ce n t iv e s:

 ~2 ,1 00

 U S

 f ir ms

 Pay

 An a ly t ics:

 ~2 ,1 00

 U S

 F ir ms

 C a rb on

 A n a lytic s:

 ~4 ,0 00

 f ir ms

 C o rp o rat e Pe rf o rman ce :

 ~3 ,0 00

 f ir ms

 Acco u nt ing

 Qu ali t y :

 ~2 ,3 00

 f ir ms

 M g mt .

 In ce n t iv e s:

 ~4 00

 f ir ms

 Pay

 An a ly t ics:

 ~2 ,0 00

 F ir ms

 C a rb o n

 An a ly t ics:

 ~3 ,0 00

 f ir ms

 C o rp o rat e Pe rf o rman ce :

 ~5 ,0 00

 f ir ms

 Accou n t ing

 Quali t y:

 ~3 ,6 00

 f ir ms

 M g mt .

 In ce n t iv e s:

 ~5 0

 f ir ms

 (Au st rali a )

  Pay

 An a ly t ics:

 ~6 00

 F ir ms

 (Au st rali a )

 C a rb o n

 An a ly t ics:

 ~5, 000

 f ir ms

 N o n - Ja p a n

 Asia Ja p a n

 Inn ovation

 highlights

 ( 2012

 -

 2020)

 V aluation

 &

 Corporate

 Performanc e -

 Scorecard

 &

 Factors

 Leas e a cc ount i ng

 change

 – req uired

 capit a li z a t i on

 (20 20 )

 pag e

 5

 Ac counti ng

 qua li t y

 score (2019)

 pag e

 24

 Equi t y - met hod

 i nvest ment s

 est i mat ed

 fa i r

 mark et

 val ue

 (2018)

  pag e

 7

 Sum mary

 enha ncem ent

 &

 a ddi t i ons t o

 H OLT

 Sc orecard

 (2014 - 20)

 pag e

 26

 I ncorporat i ng

 specia l

 di vidends

 i n

 g rowth

 ra t e ( 2018)

 Fact or

 li bra ry

 -

 sco ri ng

 method olog y

 en hanc em en t s

 pag e

 29

 Stock

 opt i on

 t rea t ment

 -

 deducti on

 from

 cash

 fl ow

 (2017)

  pag e

 8

 Addit i ona l

 scoring opt i ons pag e

 33 Economic profi t

 (2015 )

  pag e

 9

 Qua li t y

 fa ctor

 enha nced pag e

 35 M & A

 a cquisi t i on

 a cc ount i ng

 di st ort i ons a dj ust ment

 enha nced (2014)

 Risk

 fa ctor

 a dded

 pag e

 39

 G rowth

 i mproved

 for

 a cquisi t i ve

 fi rms

 (2014)

 M a rk et

 i mpli ed

 di scount

 ra t e &

 hi st ory

 rel a t i ve

 val ua t i ons fa ctors

 pag e

 40

 H EAT

 – mont hl y

 ex pecta t i on

 a na l y si s

 (2012)

 pag e

 11

 G rowth

 fa ctor

 a dded

 Ca pi t a li z ed

 l ea ses

 -

 nomina l

 ra t e a nd

 smoot h

 a verage

 (2013)

 Sc orecard,

 st y l es

 a nd

 H OLTfol i o

 i nt eg ra t ed

 i nt o

 Lens

 pag e

 41

 Capital

 Deployment

 Environ mental,

 Social

 and

 Governance

 (ESG)

 Seg ment

 CFR OI model

 (2020

 a nd

 2017 )

 pag e

 13

 M a na g ement

 i ncentive

 score ( 2020

 a nd

 2015 )

 pag e

 47

 Ex cess

 cash

 scenari o

 a na l y si s

 (2016)

 pag e

 14

 Ca rbon

 fi nancia l

 mod ell i ng

 t oo l

 (2019)

 pag e

 50

 Ca sh

 deploy ed

 com pa ny

 report

 (2015)

 pag e

 15

 Ca rbon

 a dj usted

 CFR OI (2018)

 pag e

 52

 Added

 M & A

 da t a ba se

 -

 a ssess

 a cquisi t i on

 sk ill

 (2012)

  pag e

 16

 ESG

 screening vari a bl es

 (2016 )

 Rela t i ve

 pa y

 for

 performa nce a na l y t i cs

 (2016)

  pag e

 49

  Forecastin g

 Quality

 Control

 &

 Process

 eCa p

 com pa ny

 report

 (2018)

 Qua li t y

 control

 a nd

 producti on

 process

  pag e

 54

 eCa p

 -

 Super,

 Almost

 a nd

 At

 Risk

 screening vari a bl es

 (2017)

  pag e

 19

 Qua li t y

 control

 rul es

  pag e

 58 Condi t i ona l

 proba bi li t y

 (2016)

  pag e

 20

 New com pa ny

 a ddi t i ons pag e

 59 One - cli ck

 l oa d

 of

 det a il

 I BES

 consensus

 for

 Fl ex Va l ua t i on

 (2015)

  pag e

 21

 Ti meli ness

 of

 da t a

 pag e

 60

 Fl ex Va l ua t i on

 t ool s

 enha nced -

 ex pl i cit

 fi nancia l s

 forecast ed

 (2015)

 Q u al i ty

 c on tr o l

 e nh an c e me n t s

  ( 2012 - 2020 )

 pag e

 61

 Credi t

 Suiss e equi t y

 a na l y st fore cast s

 i nteg ra t ed

 i nto

 L en s

 (20 15 )

 pag e

 22

 Areas

 of

 new

 research

  p ag e 64

 V al ua tion

 &

 Co rpor ate

 Pe rf ormanc e

 New

 Lease

 rule

 –

 impact

 on

 inves tor

 metrics

  H O L T" s

 adj u st e d

 op e r ati n g

 and

 v alu ati on

 me t r ics

 are

 ge n e r ally

 un af f e ct e d

 b y

 t h is

 ac cou n t in g

 r u le

 chan ge .

 H o we v e r , in v e st o r s

 u t il izin g

 t r adi t ional

 d ata

 so u r ces

 cou ld

 e n cou n t e r

 disto r t ion s

 t h at

 n ee d

 t o

 b e adj u st e d .

 Wh a t " s

 Th e i m p ac t ?

 Wh e r e " s

 Th e I m p ac t R e p o r t e d …I t

 D e p e n d s

 M e t r i c s I m p ac t e d

  T o t a l

 A ss e t s

 G r o ss

 P l a n t ,

 Ne t

 P l a n t ,

 O t he r As s e t ,

 Ri g h t

 o f

 U s e As s e t

 Re t u r n

 o n

 Ca p i t a l , As s e t

 U t i l i z a t i o n

  T o t a l

 L i a b i l i t i e s

 D e b t ,

 O t he r

 l i a b i l i t i e s ,

 l e a s e l i a b i l i t y

 L e v e r a g e ,

 E n t e r p r i s e V a l ue

  N e t

 I n com e

 O n l y

 f o r

 com p a n i e s

 r e p o r t i n g

  E P S

 H OL T " s

 A d j u s t e d C a s h

 F l o w &

 Ba l a n c e S hee t

 M e t r i c s

 IFR S 1

 US

 G AA P 2

 u n d e r

 I F RS

  S ource:

 C S

 HO L T

 A cc ounting

 &

 T ax

 A nal y s i s .

 *HOLT

 i s

 sti ll

 rev i ew i ng the

 potent i al

 i mpacts

 and

 di s cl os ure

 related

 to

 this

 ac counti ng rule

 change and

 may

 need

 to

 adj us t

 i ts

 metho dol ogy ,

 how ev er

 i t

 i s

 i mporta nt

 to

 note that

 ov erall

 HO L T’ s

 adj us ted

 metric s

 w ill

 rem ai n

 mor e

 comparabl e

 than

 tr adi tiona l

 financ i al

 s tatem ents

  giv en

 its

 l ongstandi ng adj us tm ent

 t o

 c api tal i z e

 l eas es .

 1 :

 A ss umes

 beginni ng of

 l eas e

 ter m.

 2.

 G eneral

 i mpact

 w ill

 be no

 cha nge,

 how ev er

 ther e

 ca n

 be

 s ome

 i mpacts

 fr om

 other

 as pects of

 the

 new

 standa rd

 s uch

 as

 cha nges

 i n

 lea s es

 cl as s i fic ati on

 typ e

 that

 ca n

 hav e

 an

 i mpact

 on

 net

 i ncome

 for

 s ome

 compani es .

 Ope r a t i n g

 E a r n i n g s

 US

 G AA P 2

 O n l y

 f o r

 com p a n i e s

 r e p o r t i n g u n d e r

 I F RS

 E B I T D A

 IFR S 1

  No

 I m p a c t *

 New

 lease

 rule

 –

 different

 methods

 H O L T

 measu r e s

 t h e r e t u r n

 on

 all

 ca p it al

 u se d

 in

 t h e bu sin e ss

 and

 h as

 lo n g

 ca p it alize d

 op e r ati n g

 le ases.

 Th e n e w le ase

 ac cou n t in g

 r u le s

 r e qu ir e le ases

 t o

 b e ca p it alize d

 o v e r

 t h e r e main in g

 con t r ac t

 li f e ,

 no t

 t h e e con o mic

 li f e o f

 t h e asset .

  Ca pi tal iza tio n

 o f

 Op eratin g

 L eas e

 Method ol og y

  HO LT

 vs.

 US

 G AA P

 a n d

 I F R S

  So u rce :

 HOL T

 Acco un t i n g

 &

 Tax .

  No t e HOL T

 may

 e l e ct

 to

 e x cl ud e ce rt a i n

 re n t

 p a y me n t s

  (e .g.

 v a ri a b l e re n t )

 d e p e nd i n g

 on

 d i s cl o s u re

 po s t

 a dop t i on

 Re m a i n i n g

 c on t r a c t

 l i f e

 S h or t

 t e r m ,

 l ow

 v a l u e

 ( I F RS ) ,

 a n d v a r i a b l e

 r e n t

 e x p e n s e

 a r e

 e x c l u d e d Ca p i t a l i z e

 ( P V)

 M i n i m u m

 L e a s e

 P a y m e n t s

 E c on om i c

 l i f e

 of

 t he

 a ss e t

 T ot a l

 r e n t

 e x p e n s e

 Ca p i t a l i z e

 ( P V)

 t he

 T ot a l

 Re n t

 E x p e n s e

 HO L T

 a ss umes

 a compa ny

 will

 us e

 the

 lea s ed

 a ss ets

 over

 its

 ful l

 eco nomic

 li fe

 −

 a better representa tio n

 of

 the

 requ ired

 i nvestment

 and

 ob lig a tio ns

 to

 g enerate

 ca s h

 flo ws.

 Equit y

 method

 investments –

 fair

 mark et value

  Th e ac cou n t in g

 f o r

 e qu it y

 me t hod

 in v e st men t s

 p r o v id e s

 in v e st o r s

 wit h

 li tt le

 in f o r mat ion.

 Th e in v e st me n t s

 com p any r e po r t

 p r o v id e s

 t h r ee sce n ario s

 b ased

 upon

 a DCF

 app r o ac h

 t h at

 in cor po r ates f ade

 t o

 h e lp

 in v e st o r s

 und e r st and larg e d if f e r e n ce s

 b e t we e n

 in v e st me n t s

 at

 boo k

 v e r su s

 t h e ir

 po t e n t ial

 f air

 marke t

 v alu e .

  Me tho d

 for

 Estima tin g

 the

 F a ir Ma r k et

 V a lue

 of

 Equity - Me tho d I nvestmen ts

 T h e e stimate

 o f

 f air

 ma r ke t

 va l u e c an

 b e d e r i ved

 u sin g

 th e DC F

 e qu ati on

 b e l o w gi ven

 a f i r m’s

 e qu i ty

 me th od

 R O E,

 c o st o f

 e qu i ty ,

 f ad e an d

 gr o w th

 assu mp ti on s b ase d

 upon

 HO LT ’s

 l ...

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