下面是小编为大家整理的非洲风险奖励指数,供大家参考。
Table
of
contents
Foreword
02
Post-Pandemic:The
impact
of
COVID-19
and
outlooks
for
Afñca’s
recovery
04
The
Great
Enabler:
How
Africa
is
using
new
digitd
solutions
to
revitdise
old
industries
08
Hostile
Narratives:
Reputation
and
African
geopo!it!cs
in
the
age
of
influence
opamt!ons
12
Annex
15
AboUt
Us
16
Contact
us
18
Afdca
R¥k•Pe
kidex:
a
4›amW
g0g0
e••sree
and
ehanges
the
gsp¥mW
eo4e
edlgon
For
reward
sc"orae:
improved
reyrard
eosre
csdac ,
negative
changa
\iaduced
rawardl
coded red For
rirk
r›nsre*:
rerJiJr:er4
rink
srcre
cc›decI
green.
i
rktk
era
r"ode‹4
red . Zambia
Egypt
Botswana
Ethiopia
Senegal
Tunisia
Foreword
Gontrol
Risks"
and
N
KC
African Economics’
Africa
experts
are pleased
to present
the fifth edition
of
the Africa
Risk-Reward
Index.
The
index
captures
the
evolution
of the
investment
environment
and
risk
longer-term
outlook
of
key
trench
3F
ap
ng
the
ir
vests
er
t
far
c!sccpe
in major
African
economies
and
s0me suggestions
o"
successfLil
strategies
"or differed
I
cont+xls.
beyond
the
hezcIine-grabbing
new+’s urid
riuiau aurrcurfidirjg thu
topic
uf investment
inio Africa.
Risk
and
reward in
2020
landscape
in
major
African
markets.
The
index
offers
B
CCi£p
r
tive
gr1a[JBhC[ ot
market
opportun
ties
znd
r
sks
across the
col
tir
er
t.
It
provid+s
a
grounc!+d,
Our
ar
alysis
is
based
on
our
exoerts’
1
he
Atrica
Hisk-Heard
Index
plots
vi+"w
of
structural political nnd
eaCf
couf
try’s
p+rforfTjzIric+
r+Iative
to ecenemic
feet
red
of
ness
merge"s,
African
p.°.ers
anrJ
highlights
how
erJJe
of reir
forced
by
our
on-the-ground
AtricaI
argest
econom
es
are
outshone opurntiur
ial upper unau,
yvfiicf
i
Uo+s
by
sm cII+
rvala.
The
position d
egch
may
Is
ddir*ed
by
Its
risk
end
ord
score.
be
she
oT
its bubble
represents
she
Uze
of
the
coumry9
GOP.
The
\ndivIdueI
soores
for
datail
in
the
anrmx.
N
DRC
Ethiopia
g‹
3
,
o
c
e
3
5
8
Risk
More,
1—1
0
U
C6te
d"Ivoine
02
It
should
be
no
surprise
that
the
overall improvement
seen
across
the
continent in
recent
years
has
been
reversecl
by
the COVID-1
0
pandemic.
Itc
huge
economic costs
have
caused
a
universal
fall
in rewarcl
scores,
even
if
its
impact
c+i
risk scoias
is
more
varied.
Ethiopia,
which
is facing
the
chaIIenge9
of
COVJD-19
and escalating
ethnic
tensions
amid
delayed elections,
has
sean
the
largest
fall
in
its QO9ition.
Fqypt’s
risk
9c0+e
has
remained relatively
steady,
but
its
reward
score
has been
badly
hit
by
the
continents
second- largest
coonavirus
••
-load
and
a
dip in
oil
and
tourism
revenue.
Algerian
risk scoia
has
actually
improved
since
the mass
protest9
8Dd
landm8Fk
elections
of 201
9,
but
challenges
in
its
oil-dependent economy
have
still
dragged
down
its overall
score,
This
fall
in
potential
rewards
is
not
unique to
Africa;
2020
is
set
to
be
the
worst
War.
However,
there
are
already
signs that
Africa
will
be
disproportionately
hit
as
risk-adverse
investors
withdraw horn
frontier
markets.
This
may
pr‹we a
mistake.
Africas
recovery
Is
likely
to be
prolonged
and
uneven,
but
it
could
also
be
transformative.
In
6orra
markets, COVID-19
has
given
new
Impetus
to positive
reforms,
with
a
greater
focus
on regional
cooperation
and
iaal
thought given
to
how
to
addre9s
longstanding impediments
to
growth.
Our
first
article
in
thie
edition
of
the
Africa
Ri9k-Reward
Index
looks
at
the longer-term
impact
and
imagines
a
post- pandemlc
landscape.
We
should
not pretend
that
this
is
anything
Dut
a
crisis for
Africa
or
that
the
opportunities
that emerge
will
somehow
compensate
for
the
humao
and
ecaomic co9t.
But
there are
opportunities.
From
the
aooelerated development
of
capital
markets
to
the forrnalisgtiou
of
the
workforce,
there
6re
indications
that
substantial
changes
will both
serve
the
continent
h
people
well and justify
a
renewed
excitement
in
Africa
w0‹O capital
flight
ftom
frontier
market9 in
the
first
half
of
this
year,
their
is
a
huge and
profitabl0
role
to
play
for
investors who
stay
or
return.
One
aspect
of
Africa\s
recovery
is
likely to be
the
ir›cma9ingIy
digitali9ation
of its
ecc+iorny.
After
successive
years
of
recoid
funding,
”African
tech"
has become
a
buzzword
so
a
erused
as
to
be
almost
meaningless.
The
chaIIc+iges
ot COVID-19
may
serve
as
a
needed
resat
of
expectations
and
app
hes.
African tech
is
exciting
when
it soNes
African problems,
not
when
it
ic
assumecl
that high-tech
indu9tries
can
simply
bypass these
problems.
Our
seoond
article explores
how
COVID-19
has
brought many
of
these
problems
to
the
fore
and how,
by
addressing
them,
African
tech
mvitali9e
more
traditional
indu9tries.
Finally,
our
third
article
looks
at
i6rance operations.
Africa
has
always
struggled to set
its
own
narrative;
to
get
past geraralisatious
that
cast
the
entiia continent
as
beyond
redemption
or
as the
next
economic
powerhouse.
But these
struggles
ae
becoming
moia
acute
as
internal
and
external
actors actively
push
false
or
divisive
narratives for
their
own
objectives.
Influenoe operations
and
dlsintormatlon
campaigns in
Africa
are
rot
a
smaller-scale
replica
of the
bats
arid
trolls
6o
frequently
imported on
in
the
rest
of
the
wold; they
are
their own:
different
actors,
different
tactics, and
different
risks
po6ed
to irwesto+s.
Of
cour9e,
these
three
article9
are themsehas
generalisations,
as
is
any att0nJpt
tO
Id0ntlfy
common
themes acros9
di9parate
countries.
There
are
0xC0Q"tions
to all
thr0e
and
a
hug0
rang0 of
other
factors
th8t
are
not
mentioned. Auy
investor
looking
to minimise
risks and
maximise
rewards
should
focus
not
on
the
headIine9
but
on
the
sp
fic country,
sector
and
project
or
transaction context.
Nonetheless,
the
pcs
of identifying
opportunities
FFIUSt
Degin sorr›ewhere,
and
we
hope
that
this edition
of
the
Africa
Risk-Rewaid
Index starts
those
discu9stons.
03
Post-Pandemic:
The
impact of
COVID-19
and
outlooks
for
Africa’s
recovery
Any
foracast
of
a
post-pandemic
time
of
writing,
confirmed
case9
have
just
passed
a
million
and
deaths
are approaching
25,000.
Th0se
numb0rc
are slreedy
tregic
and
continue
to
increase but
remain
small
in
comparison
with other
parts
of
the
world.
The
immediate economic
impact
is
8Iso
riot
unu9ual.
African
GDP
will
likely
contract
by between
6%
and
1096
this
y6ar;
severe, 8nd
its
first
rece9sion
sinc›e
1994,
but
not out
of
line
with
other
parts
of
the
world.
The
distinctive
impact
of
COVID-16
on AfrjQg
games
from
the
continent’s
limited ability
to support
a
long-term
response.
Many
Amical
states
hara
the
tapaciiy
to
pond
quickly
and
efficiently
to paridemics.
This
is
built
on
axperience:
at I8dSt
41
African
countries
have
previously experienc›ed
pandemics.
Many
applied the
lessons
learnt
in
their
successful
"nitial
responses
to
COVID-19,
and
swift and
strict
lockdowns
helped
to
slow
the initia!
6pread
of
the
virus.
But
these
same
!ockdowns
as
now
being
eased,
even as
case
numbers
rise.
Fifteen
African
canines closed
their
borders
balore
they
govanments
simply
do
not
have
the 1tscaI
headrc›om
to p
de the
support measures
necessary,
arid
also
have
fewer alternative
rr›esns
of
propping
up
the
introduced
a
range
of
monetary
pdicy rr›easufes,
including
tbe
provision
of
bllions of
US
ddlars
in
extre
liqudity,
but
the impact
of
these
dces
not
tñcMe
down
in
indusÖn
have
c›nly
recenlly
pessed
SON
This
lack
of
fiscal
flexibility
is
not
only having
a
detrimental
imp8ct
on
Africas initial
response
to
the
COVID-19
had
raoorded
a
single
case;
the
majority
are
now
easing
restrictions
even
as,
in
some
cases,
case curves
acoeierate.
On
aggregate,
the
economic
rebound
pandemic,
but
will
also
greatly
affect its
longer-term
ability
to
recover.
be judge
that
only
five
countries
can engage
in
stimulus
spending
on
a
will
be
slow,
partly
bee-a\
se
many
African c‹xintries’
fiscal
positions
will
constrain grov/Th.
AfrwB*s
real
per
GDP
is
set to
drop
to
feels last
seen
in
the
\670s. Howe"er.
that
does
not
imply
all
countries will
struggle.
Some
cr›untr›es
ar+
in
a
strong position
to
quickly,
with
the
ot Mauritius
and
Morocco
expected
to make
‹jui
k
n-x:‹›v
s
‹›nc›r•
irflerrlntic
nM
t‹›urisI return.
From
a
regional
perspective,
most of
the
fastest-growing
countries
will
be
in
DI
produœrs
have
a
cliflicult
decade ahead,
mainly
because
thèse
econoiries au
\
ndiversifigd.
fuck
6
dynamm
private s¢ctor,
ar›d
are
hamstrung
by
comJption, inefficient
govenmenls,
poor
and
chcllenging
business
environmants. Furtherrrore.
with
macroeconoiric iinbalances
and
debt
leveis
fJaving
risen sharply,
we
expœt
natimal
finanmal
crises to
becorne
more
frequent.
AltlJough
dilTicult In
viol,
the
ountries
with
week
lisant positions
shotlld
be monitored
closely,
This also
represents
a
downside
risK
to
chose
he9e
lakdown9
ae
Deirig
eesed
eerly
because
govemrrients
cannot
afford
to Maintain
the
reduction
in
tax
raverxJes
or the
exp...